The House of Representatives, or just the House, goes to the polls every two years, which is also when a third of Senate, the upper house, is up for election. Every four years, this election also coincides with the presidential election. This November will also see the election of 36 governors.Most polls put the Democrats at a significant lead in both the 435-seat House and the 100-seat Senate. Even the most conservative polls put Democrats comfortably ahead of the Republicans. For instance, the NYTimes poll was the most optimistic which had Democrats leading the Republicans by 11 points at 52%-41%, when Fox had Democrats leading by 9 points at 54%-45%.If these polls are anything to go by, Republicans are set to lose both chambers of parliament, which would make President Donald Trump’s life difficult, but not so much that it would be impossible for him to pursue his agenda.Just as Trump could still use his veto to shoot down laws passed by the Congress and presidential executive powers to bypass much of the Congressional roadblocks, so could an adversarial House block crucial bills and the Senate refuse to confirm his nominees for judges and other executive offices.
House of Representatives
The Republicans lead the lower house of Congress by the thinnest of margins, with 218 seats, which is the minimum required. The Democrats have 214. The remaining three are either vacant or independent.Polls are predicting that Democrats will take anywhere between 224 and 240 seats. The more its majority in the House, the more ambitious can its agenda be. A comfortable margin means that the leading party could absorb a handful of defections and would not feel hostage at the hands of a few rebels who turn out to be kingmakers when the margin is thin.A Democrat-led House would also mean that there would be serious negotiations over the budget and debt ceiling. Government shutdowns may be imminent.
Senate
The Republicans have a solid lead with 53 to 47. Of course, they only need 50 seats since the vice president can always cast the tie-breaking vote. But the Democrats will need to secure 51 seats to take the Senate. This November, 35 are up for election of which 22 are Republican held. Meaning that the Democrats will need to hold on to their 13 Senate seats and win at least four more held by the Republicans to gain a majority in the upper house.
Polls show that up to 10 Republican seats may be up for serious electoral battles with the Democrats slated to win quite a few, enough to flip the majority to 53 in their favour.
A solidly Democratic Senate would mean Trump nominees are frequently denied confirmation. A reaction might be that there is a string of confirmations between election night and January when the new Senate would begin sitting.
It would not, however, be as simply in legislation. Sure, there is still the presidential veto. But the Senate’s filibuster provision would keep laws from going on the vote unless there is “cloture” (a majority of 60 votes) that could force the end of a debate. That is very unlikely, though.
However with both houses of the Congress in Democratic control, they could start passing laws in healthcare and environment or other issues almost goading the president to veto. Every veto would give the Democrats issues for future campaign where they will be able to call out Republican Congressmen and Senators for not signing on. And if the Republicans do sign on, that would on one hand be a sign that his lawmakers are running away from Trump or that the president is so blindly partisan that he is vetoing pieces of legislation that have been co-sponsored by his own party leaders. Either way, this puts everyone in a bind.
Hence, of the 22 Republican Senate seats, there are a few to watch for — Michigan, Texas, Maine, Ohio, Kansas, Alaska, Iowa, and some are also putting Nevada and Wisconsin down as battlegrounds.
Each has its own story. But perhaps the ones from Michigan or Alaska deserve mention. The popular Dr Abdul El Sayed’s opponent in the state’s Democratic nomination Haley Stevens has recently endorsed the Republican incumbent Senator Mike Rogers.
This comes after Sayed publicly said he wanted Stevens to not to attend the same church on Sunday, since Stevens, whose boyfriend is an AIPAC donor, kept hammering Sayed for his criticism of Israel. Sayed enjoys a double-digit lead over Senator Rogers and is expected to win. But of late, after this meltdown within the party, the Democrats are nervous about this fallout and its effect on the voters.
In Alaska, one Dan Sullivan had hogged headlines since this senatorial candidate is virtually unknown in politics and is notable for one thing only — his name matches with the incumbent Republican Senator. Senator Dan Sullivan is close behind Mary Peltola who had been the state’s first indigenous congresswoman elected to the House in 2022.
